Full-PPR fantasy football projections
Projections that grade themselves in public.
Every player gets a floor, median and ceiling. Every number shows its working. Every week, our projections are locked at kickoff and scored against Sleeper's, including the weeks we lose.
- smaller average miss than a simple average, 2025 holdout test (p < 0.001)
- −0.29 pts
smaller average miss than a simple average, 2025 holdout test (p < 0.001)
- weekly head-to-head record vs that baseline in 2025
- 16–2
weekly head-to-head record vs that baseline in 2025
- of outcomes landed between our floor and ceiling (target 80%)
- 82.7%
of outcomes landed between our floor and ceiling (target 80%)
Week 9
Updated Sun, Nov 8, 11:38 AM PT · refreshes daily, every 3 hours Thu–Sun
Median: half the time he scores more, half less. Floor / ceiling: a bad week and a great week (10th / 90th percentile).
| # | Player | Floor | Median | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | 9.3 | 22.2 | 33.1 |
| 2 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 7.6 | 21.6 | 39.6 |
| 3 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 8.7 | 21.2 | 36.7 |
| 4 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 8.7 | 21.0 | 31.7 |
| 5 | Puka NacuaWR · LA | 6.1 | 20.6 | 37.9 |
| 6 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 7.6 | 20.1 | 31.4 |
| 7 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 7.6 | 19.2 | 29.9 |
| 8 | Jared GoffQB · DET | 7.8 | 19.1 | 29.4 |
| 9 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 4.5 | 19.0 | 36.1 |
| 10 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 7.7 | 19.0 | 29.3 |
| 11 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | 7.1 | 18.5 | 29.1 |
| 12 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 5.2 | 18.2 | 34.0 |
| 13 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 4.2 | 18.0 | 34.3 |
| 14 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 5.3 | 17.9 | 33.3 |
| 15 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | 6.7 | 17.8 | 28.4 |
| 16 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 5.7 | 17.8 | 33.9 |
| 17 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | 6.8 | 17.7 | 28.1 |
| 18 | Matthew StaffordQB · LA | 6.7 | 17.5 | 27.9 |
| 19 | D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI | 5.7 | 17.0 | 32.1 |
| 20 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 5.7 | 16.9 | 31.7 |
| 21 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | 6.1 | 16.7 | 27.2 |
| 22 | Bo NixQB · DEN | 5.8 | 16.6 | 27.2 |
| 23 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 5.7 | 15.6 | 25.7 |
| 24 | George KittleTE · SF | 3.0 | 15.6 | 28.8 |
| 25 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LA | 5.8 | 15.6 | 28.6 |
| 26 | Kirk CousinsQB · LV | 5.3 | 15.6 | 26.0 |
| 27 | C.J. StroudQB · HOU | 5.7 | 15.3 | 25.1 |
| 28 | Tee HigginsWR · CIN | 3.9 | 15.1 | 29.1 |
| 29 | Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL | 4.7 | 15.1 | 25.8 |
| 30 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | 5.8 | 15.1 | 27.4 |